Wow. I haven't read a fantasy novel as good as this in quite some time.
Every single day we see the little nation of Ukraine say 'fuck you all, we'll go it alone' to the rest of the world. They will fight Russia, who is supported by China, the United States, and Iran, with only hesitant and limited support from a few nations in Europe.
Does any serious person think that Israel is somehow different from this? That the nation that has won a half dozen wars against its neighbors and that is regularly bombing half the Middle East at will would suddenly fold if the United States sanctions them for realz this time or the UN passes another paper resolution.
We know exactly what would happen then. Decades of stubborn self-reliance and self-sabotage like Iraq and Iran have shown paired with sanctions evasion regimes with Russia, China, and any other country that wants to make an illicit buck.
This is not an argument that the United States should not try to pressure Israel. But for anyone who's paying attention, the United States ability to seriously pressure anyone about anything is dwindling by the day. This is not all magically reversed even if a Democratic administration takes office with an imaginary majority of both houses of Congress so it can pass controversial legislation.
Didn't Rahm Emmanuel endorse your second step on sanctions in his speech? At least the speech can be read as doing so --
"To that end, if I have anything to say about it, every Israeli found attacking Palestinian civilians or their property in the future will be sanctioned. Every Israeli official who supports such violence will be sanctioned. Every construction company or bank building or financing illegal settlements will be sanctioned."
(1) there's a big difference between sanctioning anyone who leases or buys OPT property and sanctioning only those who personally engage in or call for violence. in my proposal the bulk of the impact would come from the costs stemming from this piece of the policy.
(2) the biden admin also sanctioned companies that finance/build settlements (notably amana), though admittedly its policy only lasted a few months. more importantly,
(3) i think the israeli government could and would try to evade such sanctions by having the central bank and IDF take on the financing/construction work and then daring the US to sanction them; and
(4) it makes a big difference that the condition for removing sanctions would be compliance with the ICJ ruling!
one more thing - emanuel refers to “illegal” settlements. i really doubt he means settlements that are illegal under international law. i suspect he’s only referring to settlements that are illegal under israeli law (i.e. wildcat “outposts”). even naftali bennett refers to those settlements as “illegal.” this would be good point for journalists to try to pin emanuel down on
The key difference from the Biden administration approach is direct sanctions on Israeli companies not just individuals. "Perhaps more significantly, he would impose sanctions on construction companies or banks involved in illegal settlement construction." https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/07/us/politics/rahm-emanuel-speech-israel.html
Previous sanctions forced debanking of individual settlers like Yinon Levi but didn't target the banks directly for involvement in settlement enterprises. See Biden era sanctions.
(1) the biden administration did impose sanctions on amana, the main settlement construction company; (2) emanuel only calls for sanctions on companies involved with "illegal settlements." while it's theoretically possible he means "illegal" under international law, i strongly suspect he's only referring to settlements that are "illegal" under israeli law (i.e. unauthorized wildcat outposts)
Ahh thank you for that. Missed the Amana sanctions in previous years. Banks would still be new. And yes, that is entirely plausible how he would define illegal..
Wow. I haven't read a fantasy novel as good as this in quite some time.
Every single day we see the little nation of Ukraine say 'fuck you all, we'll go it alone' to the rest of the world. They will fight Russia, who is supported by China, the United States, and Iran, with only hesitant and limited support from a few nations in Europe.
Does any serious person think that Israel is somehow different from this? That the nation that has won a half dozen wars against its neighbors and that is regularly bombing half the Middle East at will would suddenly fold if the United States sanctions them for realz this time or the UN passes another paper resolution.
We know exactly what would happen then. Decades of stubborn self-reliance and self-sabotage like Iraq and Iran have shown paired with sanctions evasion regimes with Russia, China, and any other country that wants to make an illicit buck.
This is not an argument that the United States should not try to pressure Israel. But for anyone who's paying attention, the United States ability to seriously pressure anyone about anything is dwindling by the day. This is not all magically reversed even if a Democratic administration takes office with an imaginary majority of both houses of Congress so it can pass controversial legislation.
Didn't Rahm Emmanuel endorse your second step on sanctions in his speech? At least the speech can be read as doing so --
"To that end, if I have anything to say about it, every Israeli found attacking Palestinian civilians or their property in the future will be sanctioned. Every Israeli official who supports such violence will be sanctioned. Every construction company or bank building or financing illegal settlements will be sanctioned."
(1) there's a big difference between sanctioning anyone who leases or buys OPT property and sanctioning only those who personally engage in or call for violence. in my proposal the bulk of the impact would come from the costs stemming from this piece of the policy.
(2) the biden admin also sanctioned companies that finance/build settlements (notably amana), though admittedly its policy only lasted a few months. more importantly,
(3) i think the israeli government could and would try to evade such sanctions by having the central bank and IDF take on the financing/construction work and then daring the US to sanction them; and
(4) it makes a big difference that the condition for removing sanctions would be compliance with the ICJ ruling!
one more thing - emanuel refers to “illegal” settlements. i really doubt he means settlements that are illegal under international law. i suspect he’s only referring to settlements that are illegal under israeli law (i.e. wildcat “outposts”). even naftali bennett refers to those settlements as “illegal.” this would be good point for journalists to try to pin emanuel down on
The key difference from the Biden administration approach is direct sanctions on Israeli companies not just individuals. "Perhaps more significantly, he would impose sanctions on construction companies or banks involved in illegal settlement construction." https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/07/us/politics/rahm-emanuel-speech-israel.html
Previous sanctions forced debanking of individual settlers like Yinon Levi but didn't target the banks directly for involvement in settlement enterprises. See Biden era sanctions.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/with-unprecedented-executive-order-us-sanctions-settlers-behind-intolerable-violence/
(1) the biden administration did impose sanctions on amana, the main settlement construction company; (2) emanuel only calls for sanctions on companies involved with "illegal settlements." while it's theoretically possible he means "illegal" under international law, i strongly suspect he's only referring to settlements that are "illegal" under israeli law (i.e. unauthorized wildcat outposts)
Ahh thank you for that. Missed the Amana sanctions in previous years. Banks would still be new. And yes, that is entirely plausible how he would define illegal..